Player Report Kai Havertz

Kai Havertz Player Report

Name: Kai Havertz
Team: Leverkusen
Yield: 1.71%
Goals: 10
Assists: 5
Age: 19

At the time of writing this blog post I own 15 shares at an average purchase price of £6.60 each. They are currently trading at £7.01.

I'll be using data provided by Index Gain in my analysis. The sheer depth of knowledge available is outstanding and comes highly recommended for researching players on Football Index.
www.indexgain.co.uk

The main focus on this report will be on average daily price looking at player form based on PB and G+A stats along with current market sentiment. I'm certainly not here to pump players. I've been trading since August so make sure you also do your own research before buying any player I mention in these blogs.

Let's have a look at his PB stats for this season.

26/01/2019 : 215pts (1st) :first_place_medal:12p 
19/01/2019 : 65pts (92nd)
22/12/2018 : 235pts (2nd) 
19/12/2018 : 54pts (22nd)
16/12/2018 : 16pts (143rd)
08/12/2018 : 91pts (55th)
03/12/2018 : 97pts (9th)
29/11/2018 : 17pts (96th)
23/11/2018 : 100pts (5th)
11/11/2018 : 4pts (197th)
08/11/2018 : 18pts (94th)
03/11/2018 : 62pts (105th)
28/10/2018 : 192pts (3rd) 
25/10/2018 : 95pts (35th)
20/10/2018 : 74pts (93rd)
07/10/2018 : 68pts (85th)
04/10/2018 : 133pts (9th)
29/09/2018 : 34pts (166th)
26/09/2018 : 59pts (88th)
23/09/2018 : 179pts (2nd)  
20/09/2018 : 219pts (2nd) 
15/09/2018 : 1pts (218th)
01/09/2018 : 94pts (49th)
25/08/2018 : 84pts (44th)

An initial glance we can see he has posted some very decent scores. These are highlighted above in green.

What we can say from this is he is a capable PB player. I don't know much about him as a player. I generally just look at stats. To gain more of an insight you could look into the make up of each score. This is something I don't have time to do but if any of you can give some kind of insight get in touch ot leave a comment below.

Next up we'll have a quick glance at his goal scoring record. Open this page in another tab, We'll be using this in our analysis. 

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/326413/Fixtures/Kai-Havertz

So now onto some analysis. 

24/08/2018 - The day before his first game of the season was £2.57. On the day of his first game on 25/08/2018  he posted a poor PB score of 84 points and his price averaged £2.55. So a small drop. 

He rose to £2.59 on the day before his next game on 1/09/2018. Another crap score of 94pts followed. Still waiting to find the back of the net! His price averaged £2.62. 

14 days would then pass before his 3rd game of the season in which time he had a couple of minutes in Germany's home against against Peru. 

Leading into his 3rd game on 15/09/2018 his average price the day before the game was £2.75. So around a 13p increase. I don't know exactly what caused this price increase so if you know please leave a comment below. A 3-1 away loss to Bayern followed with a score of 1 point. So what did this do to his price? Not much! A one penny drop. 

On the 20th of September his team was playing away in the CL to Razgrad. After his crap PB score and lack of goals in his prior game he dropped to £2.70 the day before the CL fixture. At last Kai scores! 2 goals and a PB score of 219. No divs earn't but came second that day. As a result his price averaged £2.82 on that day! 

Three days pass before his next game on 23/09/18 against Mainz at home. I tend to look at day before average price so I can get a picture of the impact of game day average. So the day before the Mainz game his price shot up to £3.35 from his fine CL performance. As we delve deeper in this report we'll look at price impact upon both positive and negative performance to paint a picture of his price movements. So going back to the game he scores again and posts 179PB.  His price increases to £3.47. It would appear that trader confidence is really starting to take shape. 

A few days later on 26/9/20018 they play Dusseldorf away. His price the day before hits £3.61. Clearly there is a lot of confidence in this player! He get's an assist but end up losing 2-1 and posting a score of 59.  His price drops to £3.57. Too be expected really. 

On the 29th of September they lose to 2-4 to Dortmund. The day before the game his price was around £3.61 so one bad performance didn't have too much of negative effect leading into this game. He failed to score and posted a PB of 34 points. He averaged £3.61 on the game day. 

On the 4th of October they played CL at home to Larnaca. Day before the game he was trading at £3.57. What we can assume looking at the price history is 2 bad games hasn't caused much of a drop. He scores and get's an assist with a PB of 133. His price averages £3.67 so a 10p increase. 

Freiberg away on the 7th is the next game. Day before the game he hits £3.75 so confidence has been instilled once more. He fails to score and posts 67PB. Average price remains the same. 

His next game isn't until the 20th October. This will give us an indication of general confidence in the player. There are loads of factors in play such as growth in the platform etc so further research may be needed. From the 13th - 16th his price remained the same. Then suddenly a 10p drop in price. The day before the game he went back up to £3.74. His price averaged £3.76 with a PB of 74 with no goals or assists. 

Next up on 25th October is Zurich away. Day before the game his price is £3.72. So hardly any drop. It seems bad games are not creating significant drops in price. He gets 2 assists and his price averages £3.72 and PB of 95. 

Next up is Bremen away on the 28th. Day before the game price is at £3.73 so his price is stable. He scores 192 and grabs 2 goals. His price shoots up 23p to £3.96. 

3rd November they play Hoffenheim at home. Day before the game his price is at £4.13. It would appear that any brace serves this lad very well leading into the next game. No goals and assists and a PB of 62 didn't have any effect on price and averaged £4.13 on the day. 

Lepizig away on the 11th November. 8 days had passed since the previous game and 2 bad performances by him. How would the market react? Day before Leipzig game his price was £3.97. So confidence wasn't high. The team lose 3-0 with no goals or assists and a PB of 4 points. His price usurpingly dropped and hit £3.93. Not a massive drop on the day. 

Next up was the international break. He played 65 mins against Russia without scoring. 

23rd November Stuttgart at home. Day before the game £3.94. The price had bottomed out after the bad game against Leipzig. 100PB and an assit. Price £3.93 so remains stable. 

29th CL at home to Razgrad. Price day before £3.85 so the poor form from his previous 3 games dropped his price. No goal and 17PB. Price average £3.85. So no damage to average price on the day. 

3rd December Nurenburg away. He scores and posts 97PB. £3.91 average price that day. £3.87 the day before the game.

8th December Augsberg at home. Price remains steady around £3.90 day before game. No goal and PB of 91. Price remains static. 

16th Frankfurt away Price day before £3.85 so a slight drop. No goal and PB of 143. Post game £3.82

19th Schalke Away 3.88 day before the game. Post game. £3.89. PB54. No G+A

22nd Berlin at home. Day before game £4.04 2 goals. PB 235. Post game £4.09 goo

Then it was the Christmas break. He hit £4.14 and his price was stable. Then on 30th December he had an increase of 9p to 4.23. This is when the serious increase started to happen. For the next week or so he was averaging between 10 and 20p a day. It would suggest that ending on a high before the winter break certainly helped his price increase significantly! 

19th Jan Gladbach away. No goals. 65PB. End of day previous day £5.62. End of day £5.67. 

26th Wolsburg away. 1 goal and 216 points. 5.99 before the game. Post game 6.38

Today his price is £6.99. So a big increase in price. Confidence is sky high! 

Conclusions

- If scores 2 goals in a game 100% buy him. More so if there is a gap between fixtures as market confidence will be strong in him. Potential for a flip, but spread is getting higher on him so please be aware of this.

- A couple of bad games will not affect his price too much especially after good form.

- His last game prior to the Christmas break was excellent. Traders remembered this hence the very high price increase on the lead up to his first game back.

- Traders forgave him for a bad performance against Gladbach. His price actually increased about 30p!

- My understanding is his high PB scores are primarily based on goals.

- Market confidence is high in this player. A poor game in his next game against Bayern at home won't cause much of a drop in price. An easy cup game awaits a few days later so could help him get back on the score sheet if played. Mainz and EL game follows.

- If he fails to hit the back of the net in 2 games monitor his price carefully in the days after the 2nd game to find the bottomed out price. 3 games without scoring I'd advise closing the position as soon to end of KO as possible. Let it bottom out and then go back in depending on the next fixture.

- Try and spot gaps between fixtures. Buy on the back of a couple of good performances. Don't buy straight after a bad game/s if there is a gap between fixtures. Look to buy day before the next game.

I plan to see how he get's on against Bayern. If he scores I will be buying as soon as the ball hits the back of the net. I'm very confident of a further rise as there is a gap between the next league game. If he doesn't score I'll be topping up a couple of days before the Mainz game. I don't expect a massive drop if he fails to score against Bayern though. The trade strategy is price appreciation ad may sell depending upon performances. I'm not sure if he will be a long termer just yet. I react to performance and price for all my players. He's still very young at 19 and aligns with market sentiment.

Finally please be aware I've based this analysis purely on PB and G+A. Other factors could come in to play so please consider this.

Any questions tweet me or message me on Slack @Rob (with the Cov City photo).

Cheers

Rob 

P.S In my next blog I'll try to explain why banana sales will go up on SS day!