Sunday, February 3, 2019

Luka Jovic Player Report Post Christmas

I became aware of Jovic on the first day of G and A after scoring 5 goals in one game back in October. I've kept close tabs on his price movement since.

Firstly we need to work out what type of player he is. 

This is what affects his price;

- Goals. His big price rise started after his 5 goals. 
- He won't be winning you any MB in the near future. Potential for the odd one if an English team, Barcalona or Bayern sign him in the summer. 

Here's his PB and goal stats for the season. 

Green indicates a PB win. 
Orange a goal.

Ok let's look at his price the day before the first G and A eligible game. He was trading at £2.30 and shot up to £2.92 on the day he scored the 5 goals.

Data provided by Index Gain Premium

02/02/2019 : 81pts (28th)  1 GOAL
26/01/2019 : 24pts (48th)  
19/01/2019 : 77pts (33rd)  
22/12/2018 : -5pts (201st)  
19/12/2018 : 124pts (3rd)  2 GOALS
16/12/2018 : 20pts (61st)  
13/12/2018 : 41pts (32nd)  
08/12/2018 : 22pts (69th)  
02/12/2018 : 60pts (27th)  1 GOAL
29/11/2018 : 182pts (1st) :first_place_medal:12p  2 GOALS
24/11/2018 : 90pts (30th)  
11/11/2018 : 212pts (2nd)  2 GOALS 
08/11/2018 : 80pts (15th)   1 GOAL
02/11/2018 : 99pts (7th)  
28/10/2018 : 63pts (27th)  
25/10/2018 : 33pts (32nd)  
19/10/2018 : 325pts (1st) :first_place_medal:4p :star:2p  5 GOALS
07/10/2018 : 128pts (18th)  
04/10/2018 : 90pts (16th)  
30/09/2018 : 61pts (25th)  1 GOAL
26/09/2018 : -22pts (147th)  
23/09/2018 : 15pts (83rd)  
20/09/2018 : 114pts (9th)   1 GOAL 
14/09/2018 : -13pts (21st)  
01/09/2018 : -15pts (120th)  
25/08/2018 : 18pts (77th)

This report focuses on his price movement between the 22nd December until the day before his return after the Christmas break. 

His price went from £4.17 to £5.10. Clearly there was strong confidence in this player. 

He failed to find the back of the net in his first game back and his price averaged £5.25 across the day of the game. Interesting considering he didn't score! 

The price the day before his next game on 26th January was £5.61. So no goal in his previous game but traders still backed him strongly! Again he fails to hit the back of the net. His price averages at £5.63. 

His next game was yesterday on February 2nd. The day before the game on Friday his price averaged £5.94. Up again! 

So what we can say is that confidence is very high in the player post Christmas even with him not scoring in a couple of games. 

He scored yesterday. This will only increase more confidence in the market for him.  The average price yesterday was £6.11. Any increase of 17p. 

He doesn't play until next Saturday so with confidence in him so high at the minute I have gone ahead and purchased 50 shares at £6.18 each. 

Based on the sentiment since Christmas I expect a rise on the lead up to his next game. If prices went up with no goals in 2 games I expect a rise given he scored yesterday. 

 I've positioned this trade as a flip opportunity. I believe his price will increase enough to cover the commission if you put him in the sell line on Saturday morning. It's just a personal tactic of mine to trade frequently. I'm doing this to get to know a lot of players in a short period of time to help me fully understand the market. I'm not in it to make huge, huge gains quickly. It's more of an education so further down the line I can trade with higher number of futures with confidence. 

For those of you who don't like short term trading I still think he would be an excellent long term hold and make more money than flipping. Barcalona and Bayern are reported to be interested in the summer so this should further fuel his price. 

I hope this has got you thinking about checking price history a lot closer! Index gain has been an invaluable tool for me to look at data in depth. 

Happy trading! 

Rob 




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