Dembele Price Report

Lets get into some analysis.

Supplied by Index Gain here are his PB and goal stats for the season.

As you can see his PB stats are not great. Only 2 occasions in 25 has he scored 170 or over. Can't see him being a PB man anytime soon!

He's young and plays at Barcalona. His increases in price is based on goals and hype.

20/01/2019 : 115pts (9th)  1 GOAL
13/01/2019 : 16pts (30th)
06/01/2019 : 61pts (7th)
22/12/2018 : 123pts (19th) 1 GOAL
16/12/2018 : 86pts (28th)
11/12/2018 : 84pts (8th)  1 GOAL
08/12/2018 : 129pts (11th) 1 GOAL
02/12/2018 : 156pts (5th)
28/11/2018 : 86pts (7th)
24/11/2018 : 60pts (49th)
06/11/2018 : 80pts (11th)
03/11/2018 : 73pts (30th) 1 GOAL
28/10/2018 : 55pts (32nd)
24/10/2018 : 18pts (33rd)
20/10/2018 : 66pts (40th)
07/10/2018 : 13pts (96th)
03/10/2018 : 18pts (36th)
29/09/2018 : 59pts (53rd)
26/09/2018 : -3pts (114th)
23/09/2018 : 40pts (52nd)
18/09/2018 : 112pts (2nd)  1 GOAL
15/09/2018 : 193pts (6th)  1 GOAL
02/09/2018 : 170pts (5th)  1 GOAL
25/08/2018 : 160pts (4th)  1 GOAL
18/08/2018 : 89pts (18th)

Ok so let's have a look at his price the day before the start of his first game. He was trading at £4.17. No goal was scored and on the 24th the day before his 2nd game his price hadn't moved. The average price on his second game where he scored was £4.15. The market hadn't taken notice.

He rose 5p on the lead up to his next game and averaged £4.19 the day before the game. He scored his second of the season and averaged out at £4.19. No market reaction. This could come down to no G and A at this point in the season.

The day before his 4th game on the 15th September his price was at £4.11. A drop of 4p. Another goal is scored on the 15th and no movement in price. He remains at £4.11

3 days later he scores again. He rise 16p to £4.27. Maybe the FI community started to take note after 4 in 4 in the league.

His next game was on 23rd September so I'm intrigued to see what the price increase would be. The day before the game he averaged £5.57. A BIG jump in price of £1.30! It would seem 4 in 4 certainly made the index take note.

He fails to score. Let's see what happens to his price. His price increased to £5.84. An increase even though no goal and a shite PB score of 40!!!!! Maybe the hype had begun!

After this game he went on a barren spell. 7 games without scoring. Do you think his price would drop as a result? Well let me provide you with some figures. On November 2nd his price averaged £4.82. So a £0.98 drop in the space of 7 games. If you like try using Index gain and really look deeper at the price drops after each game which will give you an idea on how each game without a goal hurt his price.

His goal drought ended on the 3rd November with him grabbing a goal. His price averaged £4.80. Confidence had not been restored by the looks of it.

Another 4 games pass without a goal. His price actually increases from £4.80 to £5.10 on November 7th the day before his next match.  Not a bad rise without finding the back of the net.

The 8th he ends his goal drought and averages £5.23. A 13p increase from the day before. Confidence restored. It's weird how the market behaves. Maybe 7 games was too much for an instant reaction but 4 is ok.

His next game is on the 11th December where he scores again. Day before he averages at £5.33 so this would indicate faith has been fully restored. Game day his price averages £5.67. A big jump!

His next game is on the 16th. Day before his average price was £6.12. His price had blown up!!!! I wish I had got on but I wasn't into using Index Gain then! He failed to score. His price averaged £6.15. Confidence must have been high so no sell off.

He then plays on December 22nd. Day before his price was £6.05 so yeah a bit of a drop off but not a lot. Another goal! What do you reckon? Price increase? By how much though? He fell to £5.98. He played 68 minutes so he might have got injured. I'm not sure but it was his last game before the Christmas break so that could explain it.

His first game back was the 6th of January. Day before the game he averaged £5.99 so had remained pretty static over Christmas. He failed to hit the back of the net. Price averaged £6.02.

His next game was on the 13th January and his price after not scoring hit £6.08. Next game was 20th January and found the net. Day before the game he was at £7.24. Huge increase. Part of this rise I think was him scoring 2 goals in the cup! It just goes to show cup games do influence young hyped goal scorers!

On the 20th he scores again! He averages £8.11. What we can conclude is scoring 2 goals and then scoring another leads to a big increase when a player is in form. The back story is an important factor in the jump and that's the point of the blog post. Each player I feel has a market confidence score! So go back a few games and look at the price changes depending on the time period of good / bad form to estimate what kind of gain / drop a player will receive.

He hasn't played since the 22nd. In that time his price has increased to £10.11. Ridiculously high growth. FOMO and high market confidence has caused the rise in-spite of an injury. He could be back for tomorrows game against Real. 

Remember doing your own research is really important and never rely solely on the advice of bloggers like me, or people trying to pump players on Twitter. I just present the numbers in a written format to try and paint a picture of a players price movement.

I don't currently hold this player. I won't be boarding this train until he is back from injury. If he scores in his next game I will be going BIG! I think it's too risky to get on now. I'm pretty risk adverse so it's up to you what you do.

I hope this helps!

Rob